Breaking Down Trump’s Strategy Chances

As of the first writing of this, all fifty states have either been officially called, or are close enough to have a presumed winner. This means that without further action, Joe Biden has won the election with an electoral vote count of 306-232. This is an important data point because, even if you are of the extreme minority opinion that this election is not yet over, this at least gives a starting point of exactly what Trump would need to overcome in order to succeed in a court-fueled comeback. And that number is 38 Electoral Votes.

38 Electoral Votes is not anything to scoff at. Especially when there are only a small handful of states in which the vote was close enough to warrant any sort of recount or legal contention.

The following states are where either the possibility of a recount, or where active/discussed legal actions exist:

Pennsylvania (20)
Georgia (16)
Michigan (16)
Arizona (11)
Wisconsin (10)
Nevada (6)

Using these states as a starting point, we can draw out the potential paths Trump could theoretically explore in order to try and remount a comeback. Mathematically, there are 13 paths for Trump Victory, and 3 paths for a Electoral College Tie (which would then move to Congress to break).

Trump Victory if Following States are Overturned:
– PA + GA + AZ
– PA + GA + NV
– PA + GA + WI
– PA + MI + GA
– PA + MI + AZ
– PA + MI + NV
– PA + MI + WI
– PA + AZ + WI
– GA + AZ + WI + NV
– MI + AZ + WI + NV
– GA + MI + NV
– GA + MI + AZ
– GA + MI + WI

Electoral College Tie
– PA + AZ + NV
– GA + AZ + WI
– MI + AZ + WI

As you can notice above, of the 13 (+3 tie) paths, 8 (+1 tie) require Pennsylvania, and the remaining 5 (+2 tie) require Michigan and/or Georgia. So no matter what you are hearing about Nevada, Wisconsin, or Arizona, without one of the three larger states, Trump has no path towards a conclusive victory.

Constitutionally, Trump has four different methods of trying to overturn this election:

First, the most Democratic, yet also least likely, path would be for Trump and his campaign to push for Recounts in the states in which he lost the popular vote. The rules for a recount vary state by state.

Second, another very unlikely scenario to flip a state in favor of Trump, but could lead to a better chance for him in the two remaining methods outlined below, would be successful litigation within a state in question. Short of tangible proof of miscounting or destruction of votes (of which none has been presented), no lawsuit is likely to change the count or winner in any state this election. Instead, it would be more likely to delay the certification of results in a state. Which brings us to:

Third, a complicated and potentially drawn out strategy, and the one it appears the Trump campaign is most focused on at this point, is to prevent states from certifying their results. By Federal Law, all states must certify their election results six days prior to the Electoral College Vote, which is set for Dec. 14th, 2020. This means all states MUST certify by Dec. 8th, 2020. However, most states (and all of the states involved in this current mess) have State Laws in place that move that date even sooner. If a state fails to certify ahead of the Federal date, how they are accepted, if at all, would be up to Congress. If a state fails to meet their State deadline, that State’s legislature could become a factor in which Electors are set to meet and vote on the next President of the United States. It is worth noting that TEN of the twelve houses of legislation in the six states in question are Republican Majority. Only Nevada has a Democratic Majority in both of their houses.

Lastly, faithless electors. Real quick for those who don’t know the process: When we vote for a President under the Electoral Collage, we don’t actually vote for the person on the ticket. Instead, we are voting for a representative within that candidate’s party to cast one of the nation’s 538 Electoral Votes on Dec. 14th. On a Federal level, there is nothing in the constitution that prevents any of these 538 individuals from all deciding to go against their state’s certified results, therefore becoming what is called a “Faithless Elector”, and instead casting their votes for Kanye West on that date. However, don’t panic. Most states (almost 30 of them) have some sort of system in place to prevent this from happening. This is incredibly unlikely to be an issue come Dec. 14th, but it is 2020, so I felt the need to bring it up. But in all reality, assuming all of the states are adequately certified, Trump would need 38 Democratic Representatives (out of 306) to randomly change their mind and decide that he is the better choice. I’ll also remind anyone who is sincerely concerned about this scenario, that never in the history of the Electoral College has a Faithless Elector ever changed the results of the election. And only ONCE did a Faithless Elector ever change their vote to the candidate from the opposite party.

As you can see above, the Election Process in this country is complicated to say the least. And while there are technically still avenues for Trump to try and made headway, the reality is that it is very much like a team being down by five or six touchdowns with less than two minutes remaining in the game. Sure, he could Hail Mary, On-Sides Kick, Hail Mary, On-Sides Kick, again and again and hope to somehow pull off a miracle, but the truth is, there just isn’t enough time to realistically do what he is trying to do, and if he couldn’t pull off a win in the first 58 minutes, what does he think will change now?

If you’re interested in trying to dive deeper into the specific laws and deadlines of each state in question, or to find out more information about which lawsuits are still going on, or what the likelihood of a Statewide recount might be in each state, I’ll be creating a different post for each state that compiles all of that information. Just click on the state below for more information.

Pennsylvania | Georgia | Michigan | Arizona | Wisconsin | Nevada

To My Friends and Family who *Still* Voted for Trump

Four years ago, many people such as myself had a very rude awakening in wake of the 2016 Election. We found ourselves in uncertain times and confused about a great deal in regards to the world in which we lived. But despite all of that, I still had hope that we would get through it all, which is what eventually led me to take the time to write my first published article, simply titled, “To My Friends and Family who Voted for Trump” (huff.to/2fRR2RL).

In it, I made an argument, a plea really, for friends and loved ones from across the aisle to use their position from within the party to stand up against threats to the freedoms and rights of all Americans. We may have had disagreements in policy, or prioritized different issues ahead of others, but I truly believed that there were at least some areas in which we had obvious common ground, if not in a political party, at least by the very nature of being a decent human being.

Which is why these past four years have been so heartbreaking for so many of us.

We’ve seen the people who raised us, who taught us to treat others with respect, and who instilled the very foundation of compassion for our neighbors, throw those very ideals to the wayside for a cheap dalliance with a fraud.

You’ve seen this man mock a woman testifying about her sexual assault, and you sided with him. You’ve heard him on tape admitting to his own exploitation of women, and you dismissed it as “locker room talk.” You’ve witnessed him call women fat, ugly, wacky, wicked, nasty, bimbos, crazy, and deranged, and then instead of calling him out for being reprehensible, you repeated his words back in your own posts and tweets. You’ve done all of this, and yet still think he is presidential? That he thinks women deserve to be treated with respect?

You’ve watched him, in a crowd full of officers of the law, encourage them to be unnecessarily rough to their suspects, and then you sat back and wondered how the Murder of George Floyd happened. You’ve cheered him on as he told the NFL they should fire players for kneeling during the National Anthem in a form of peaceful protest, and then you clutched your pearls at the fact that we had to take to the streets in order to be heard. You shared videos and memes of him and his kids blaming the civil unrest on protesters, but then you immediately ignored video, after video, after video of thousands of police officers across the country abusing, illegally detaining, and even *killing* unarmed citizens. You watched these videos from your couch and took his side automatically without even bothering to check in with the people you pretend to care about who were in the middle of it? Does that sound like the actions of an informed citizen? Is it really any question why we say “Black Lives Matter” so loudly, when this president’s actions and your own active resistance towards the truth clearly shows that you believe that they don’t?

You’ve stood by as he has elected officials into his cabinet and inner circle that have direct ties to the companies and organizations in which they are meant to govern, and you called him smart. You’ve seen his own children work constantly in official capacities and the entire family profit off of the American people, yet you have had the audacity to try and act like even the worst accusations slung at Hunter Biden was even a fraction of what the Trump children are doing right in front of your face? You’ve seen him literally threaten and endanger those who stood against him and obstruct any sort of investigation into any of his taxes, foreign business investments, backroom dealings, and copious history of fraud, and you cried foul at how he has been treated? As evidence has piled up about numerous of his illegal activities, instead of trying to be objective and let the facts be heard, you refused to even glance at the details and decided that because he said it was “Fake News” that it must not be true? Does any of this sound like the behaviors or actions of an honest man? How do you expect us to react when you’ve thrown away logic, truth, and reason to blindly trust the world’s most prolific con artist?

And even now, when the majority of voters, both in sheer numbers, and in our Electoral College, have finally been given the chance to stand up and say enough is enough, you re-share his propaganda, believe his lies that have absolutely no evidence, and you still stand by the most despicable character in modern American Politics?

Why? I seriously don’t understand it. What unbreakable hold does this fraud have over you?

What is it about this man and his family that has you so obsessed with believing he is innocent and worthy of your praise? You’ve chosen to follow a charlatan instead of have faith in your own loved ones and community, and honestly, I don’t know how to get past any of this. I don’t know how to trust you anymore. I don’t know how to talk to you about my life or anything else going on in the world.

And it really breaks my heart to admit that.

In 2016, I felt confused, but I desperately clinged onto some sort of hope that as a family, as a country, that maybe we could get past our disagreements and find a path forward.

But four years later, you’ve taken that hope from me and replaced it with a sense of betrayal. You had the chance to stand up against hate, against tyranny, against the return of fascism, and instead you plugged your ears, closed your eyes, and refused to take a stand when we needed you the most.

We needed you, and you left us behind.

For four years we’ve been forced to watch as rights have been ignored, families torn apart from the inside out, and human decency simply discarded. And now we finally have a chance to try and undo this mess that you’ve been an accessory to, and to be entirely blunt, we need you to get out of our way.

We just don’t have time for you anymore. Your nonsense, your hate, your complete disregard for truth, honesty, or objective reality? It. Has. Been. Exhausting. We’ve tried to engage with you and find compromise over the last four years, and you’ve shut us out, mocked us, and belittled us every step of the way. You’ve replaced rational thought and logical comprehension with confirmation bias and QAnon conspiracy theories, and to be frank, we simply just don’t have the time or patience to sit back and debate facts with you anymore when people’s lives are literally hanging in the balance.

If you truly want to have your opinions heard, and have any chance of contributing to the direction in which this country heads, not to mention have even a remote chance at trying to rebuild the trust you’ve unceremoniously eroded over the past half decade, then you need to stop it with these asinine conspiracies and learn to debate with actual evidence and stop putting faith into some half-baked story you read on the internet.

I want to have faith that you can do that. That you can somehow begin to see the damage your actions and behaviors have caused to your relationships, your families, and this democracy as a whole. But unlike four years ago, I can’t say I have any hope left.